The ultimate in quality decision support for investors and traders

Active investors have a strong tendency to underperform market benchmarks or even lose money. An 11-year study conducted by the UK Financial Conduct Authority found that as many as 80 percent of all retail investors lose money. Do not let your portfolio become a statistic! There is a better way: with systematic trend following you can turn your investing into a life-long success.

This all is in spite of the fact that since 2009, we have enjoyed the longest stocks bull market on record! Clearly, investors need a better approach. With systematic trend following you can turn your investing into a life-long success.

Invest successfully for life with systematic trend following

Our daily TrendCompass reports provide quality decision support to help you profit from trends in over 200 financial and commodity markets – with confidence and peace of mind.

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I-System: probably the best model of its kind

The reports are powered by the I-System©, whose reliability and performance was proven through daily use since 2003. In fact, we believe that I-System is probably the best trend following model ever built. This is a bold claim – but not a hollow one (click here to see why).

What is the I-System?

I-System comprises a dual neural network of mathematical algorithms that codify a body of knowledge in market analysis and trading.

This robust architecture enables I-System to track thousands of intelligent trading strategies in any security market, generating consistent trading signals with zero loss of quality or focus. Its versatility enables the I-System to simultaneously track long-, short-, and medium-term trends and deploy multiple strategies in any market. This in turn dramatically reduces the model risk often associated with lesser quantitative models.

What we are after: large-scale price events (LSPEs)

Trend following has proven as one of the most effective investment strategies since the 1970s. That is not to say that it is easy to put in practice. For one thing, trend following can be counterintuitive: while we are naturally inclined to buy low and sell high, trend following entails the opposite – buying securities after their prices have risen and selling them as prices decline. Trend following also requires a great deal of patience and discipline. A good case in point was our experience trading crude oil in 2019/20:

During the oil price collapse in early 2020, I-System strategies generated a profit of $42.45 per barrel, simply through adherence to time-tested set of rules that define how we react to price fluctuations in the market.

The chart above fairly illustrates the nature of trend following: through the entirely unforeseen oil price collapse in the early 2020, I-System strategies generated a profit of over $42/bbl ($42,000 per single crude oil contract) in only two month’s time. However, during the previous 8 months they mostly traded in the negative territory. This is part of the process. The chart below shows our crude oil strategies over a longer time interval:

To profit from a price trend, we need to be in the right position at the right time. This involves risk and incurring some losses until a price trend takes off. But when trends do unfold, the windfalls can be very substantial. Think of prices of Bitcoin, Gold, Oil, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, or stocks like AMZN, TSLA, MSFT and many others. Whatever you may think about the valuation of those assets, their price appreciation (or decline) invariably unfolded as trends that spanned months or even years, richly rewarding those who were correctly positioned to profit them.

I-System is about long-term reliability, not short-term gimmicks

Many investors would like to find some gimmick providing instant trading gratification and risk-free profits. This desire is met with a flood of offers promising large investment returns, risk-free trading, 80% accurate forecasts, etc. Unfortunately, almost without exception these claims will prove false. This, in part, is the reason why most retail investors lose.

The reasons for poor performance are many but they usually come down to short-term focus, investing with a poorly formulated strategy or no strategy at all and trading too frequently. As Benjamin Graham put it, “The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.”

Achieve life-long success at investing!

The great news is that with a well formulated, effective strategy and discipline you can turn your investing into a life-long success that will steadily enhance your wealth and your quality of life with less stress and with peace of mind. While you’ll have to supply the discipline yourself, we will provide the dependable and effective decision support for your investing thanks to I-System Trend Following and our TrendCompass reports.

In investing, performance is a long-term process

Since the start of our track record in 2007, I-System has consistently outperformed the relevant strategy benchmarks, including world’s top ranked, Blue Chip Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs).

Below is the most recent performance summary of our Major Markets portfolio: 180 trend following strategies covering 15 key global markets including main equity indices, treasury futures, energy, metals, and FX pairs.

A well-diversified trend following portfolio is a robust diversifier; importantly, it provides a non-correlated source of returns as we saw in 2022 and also during the 2020 market turmoil. In both cases, Major Markets portfolio has diverged from adverse trends in stocks and bonds markets.

The chart below illustrates the performance attribution for each of the 15 markets included in the Major Markets portfolio (excluding Bitcoin) on an approximately equal risk-weighting basis:

There’s a lot to read into the above chart. For example, we can see the assymetry between the downside and the upside: while our negative performing markets (with the exception of German bund) are all above 50, the upside has reached above 300. We can also see that the ‘negative cohort’ are becoming more closely packed below breakeven.

Given that the above performance isn’t based on a backtest simulation, but on the signals communicated in real time since January 2020, they are the perfect illustration of the effectiveness of trend following. The strategy certainly requires a great deal of discipline and patience, but over the long term it is reliable and remarkably versatile, allowing investors to trade and profit in many markets even if they otherwise know little about them, both through bull and bear cycles.

A PDF report below details the performance of all 180 strategies in charts, through July 2024:

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Again, the above performance review is the result of actual trading signals communicated to subscribers in real time – it is not a backtest simulation.

The benefits of I-System TrendCompass reports

CUTTING THROUGH THE INFORMATION OVERLOAD 

Financial industry generates thousands of research reports each and every day, an overwhelming glut of information. Instead of adding to your reading pile, we analyze market trends and deliver the final product of our research: clear, actionable decisions you can digest in seconds, not minutes per day.

REAL-TIME CTA INTELLIGENCE

For decades, commodities trading advisors (CTAs) have used systematic trend following as one of the best strategies in active investment trading. Institutions like Nomura, JPMorgan and Rabobank pay close attention to CTAs, because they appreciate that understanding CTA strategies “can provide a strong edge in today’s highly systematized markets.” TrendCompass delivers this edge – effectively, reliably and in real time!

PROVEN RELIABILITY, VERSATILITY AND EFFECTIVENESS

Our reports are generated by the I-System, the product of more than 20 years of passionate and uncompromising obsession with quality. We have tested its effectiveness in the most rigorous way possible: by managing real money portfolios and comparing their performance to that of the world’s leading “managed futures” funds or Commodity Trade Advisors (CTAs). Since the inception of our track record in 2007, I-System has consistently outperformed its benchmarks (audited).

INVALUABLE, TIMELY DECISION SUPPORT, EVERY DAY

A reliable and effective trends auto-pilot provides invaluable decision-support. Even only as a ‘reality check’ or a source of ‘second opinion’ to market analysts, TrendCompass gives you the guidance to navigate the markets profitably, confidently and with a peace of mind.

Screenshot of a typical I-System strategy for S&P500 shows up-trends in blue and downtrends in red. Onset of a down-trend is a signal to reduce or hedge your market exposure. It is equally important to know when to start adding to your exposure again. During the 2008 bear market, we achieved a 27% positive net return thanks to I-System strategies like this one. The authenticity of our results was audited by KPMG.

What some of our clients say…

Our clients enjoy the sober, consistent quality decision support they get from TrendCompass… Here are a few testimonials from professional and non-professional investors:

TrendCompass: what you get

Without fail, TrendCompass will help you profit from major price trends. We worked hard to make our reports intuitive and easy to read so you can review them in just a few seconds each day. The reports consist of an e-mail with a very brief commentary, and a PDF containing a markets summary page followed by a detailed breakdown per market showing trading signals and/or trend reversals per each individual trading strategy.

Daily e-mail summary

Your daily e-mail summarizes the changes in directional exposure based on previous trading session. An intuitive bar chart shows the recommended exposure so that you can grasp it at a glance.

PDF – summary page

PDF – detailed breakdown by market and by trading strategy

Customized portfolios

We can customize reports for clients who wish to track a different selection of markets, a larger number of strategies, or follow a particular selection of strategies (for example, a preference for short-cycle trends). We’ll seek to accommodate any such request. A one-time 1,200 Euros setup fee may apply for customized portfolios.